SPATIAL ANALYSIS OF FEMALE FERTILITY PATTERN IN LAGOS STATE, NIGERIA

Abstract

Nigeria TFR is currently put at 5.5% by NPopC which is one of the highest fertility rates in the world. With rapid high fertility and population growth, negative influences are exerted on the society which results in poor economic and social development. The research used Geographic Information System techniques to determine the spatial analysis of fertility pattern in Lagos state for the year 2006 and 2015 using the total fertility rate. It identified the total fertility rate of each local government in the state; it does also examine the relationship between socio-economic and demographic factors of the population. This was achieved by the use of live birth records for the study period and the total number of women between ages 15-49 grouped. The study reveals that there is high, moderate and low rate of TFR in the study area, although, areas of hotspot and coldspot were identified using the Getis-OrdGi GIS statistics and cluster areas were identified using the global and local Moran I auto correlation tool. Epe, Ibeju-Lekki and Badagry had Hotspots of Fertility rates with 99% confidence while Ikorodu, Ikeja, Shomolu, Shomolu, Surulere, Lagos Island, Lagos Mainland, Alimosho, Agege, Kosofe, Apapa, Ajeromi-Ifelodu, and Oshodi had coldspots for fertility rates. A structured questionnaire was administered while the locations of the target audience were determined using hand held GPS (gamine). The responses were used to determine the percentage of the socio-economic factors which include wealth status, educational level, occupation, knowledge about family planning, methods of contraception on the 2015 data on TFR. Geographic weighed regression (GWR) analysis was used to determine the level of relationship between the TFR and the socio-economic and demographic factors to produce a GWR map showing the levels of significant of factors that has the highest influence on TFR in the state for 2015.