EFFECTS OF CLIMATIC VARIABILITY ON MALARIA TREND IN PARTS OF KOGI STATE, NIGERIA

Abstract

Malaria burden continues to increase in the tropical countries of the world such as Nigeria. In Nigeria, more often than not it is blamed on climatic influences on the environment. The historically high rainfall, temperature and relative humidity encourage prevalence in North central region of Nigeria, especially around Rivers Niger and Benue within which Kogi state is situated. This study investigated the influence of selected climatic elements on malaria trend in Kogi State. The period of ten years (2002 – 2011) was used for the study. Records of the weather parameters and (minimum and maximum temperature, rainfall relative humidity) and in and out patient treated for malaria were obtained from European Reanalysis (ERA-INTERIM) and Health Facilities across the three senatorial District of Kogi State. Multiple histograms of monthly mean malaria incidence were constructed against the months of occurrence to examine the seasonality of malaria prevalence in the study area. The greatest malaria burden was observed during the wet season (May – June). Descriptive and inferential statistics were used. The ordinary least square model was used to determine the relationship between the weather elements and disease and how much of the variation in the occurrence of the disease is accounted for by the climate parameters. Malaria risk mapping was carried out using geospatial techniques. Seven (7) factors were taken into considerations which include rainfall, temperature, relative humidity, and distance to drainage, slope, elevation and malaria incidence. The criteria were fit into fuzzy membership classes and overlaid to generate a malaria risk map. The study recommends that intervention measures be put in place throughout the year. The medical personnel and the meteorologists should hold frequent consultative forums to provide adequate and timely information, and strategies against malaria epidemics. There is need for further research to unearth more information on the seasonal influence and the positive trends of malaria in the study area. This study will provide current information on malaria situation in Kogi State which will be very useful to the National Malaria Control Programme and the epidemiological service providers in formulating policies that may promote the mitigation of malaria in Kogi State and country at large.