MODELLING LONG TERM POWER GENERATION CAPACITY EXPANSION PLANNING FOR NIGERIAN CENTRAL (TRANSMISSION) GRID

Abstract

The generation of electricity in Nigeria is diminutive compared to the demand despite the immense potential of renewable energy and fossil fuel deposit. Most of the existing generating stations are sited in the South South region due to nearest to source of fuel but the issue of insecurity has reduced the performance of these stations which led to inadequate generation capacity. This calls for the need to add new generating units while considering available natural resources at the other regions. This research models a long term power generation capacity expansion planning for Nigerian central grid. The bulk potential of available energy resources were evaluated in all the geo-political regions and the obtained energy was used to model a power generation plan for the transmission grid. The research work was carried out by obtaining data for large hydro, coal, natural gas and crude oil reserves and their locations from Federal Ministry of Power, and Department of Petroleum Resources in Nigeria and the data were analysed using statistical algorithm implemented in Microsoft Excel work spaces. The generation expansion plan was modelled using statistical algorithm implemented in Microsoft Excel work spaces. The result of the electrical energy equivalent reveals that all the regions have potential resources for bulk electricity supply in Nigeria. The model proposed that investment could be made for development of hydro power station and coal-fired power station based on the active power generation equivalent of hydro power and coal reserves in the North East and North Central regions. Hydroower stations could be invested into with average active power generation equivalent of 260MW for the North West region. Based on the active power generation equivalent of 73936.42MW from hydro power, coal, crude oil and natural gas reserves, investment could be made for development of coal-fired power generating stations, hydro power station, and gas-fired power generating stations for the South East region. In the South West region, investment could be made for the development of hydr opower stations, and gas-fired power generating stations based on the active power generation equivalent of 3268.69MW from hydro power, crude oil and natural gas reserves in that region. The South South region could have active power generation of 267567.21MW from hydro power, crude oil and natural gas reserves and this would be sufficient to meet their load demand by the year 2030.