Abstract:
The anisotropic and heterogeneous nature of the subsurface units at offset wells gets more
complex at locations outside well control. However, qualitative and quantitative
predictions of reservoir properties and geometries beyond well control are vital to
understanding the intrinsic characteristics of subsurface formations. Supervised Multilayer
Perceptron neural network, conditional sequential Gaussian simulation, seismic
multi-attribute transforms, and modeling via multivariate statistical analysis were applied
to three-dimensional (3D) seismic and a suite of borehole log data set obtained from
Pennay field, offshore Niger Delta with a view to predicting lateral continuity of
hydrocarbon reservoir properties and quantify the uncertainty associated with the
predictions with respect to optimal hydrocarbon extraction. Four horizons corresponding
to near top of mapped hydrocarbon bearing sands were used to produce time maps and
then depth structural maps using appropriate checkshot data. The post-stack seismic
inversion was done and ten attributes were e x t r a c t e d from the seismic sections at 20-
40 ms time-windows covering all the mapped horizons. Petrophysical analysis of the
mapped reservoirs revealed that the area is characterized with hydrocarbon saturation
ranging from 56 -72 %, water saturation between 27 - 44 %, volume of shale between 7 –
20 % and porosity between 25-31 %. Five major structure building faults were identified.
Structural closures identified as rollover anticlines and displayed on the time/depth
structure maps suggest probable hydrocarbon accumulation at the upthrown side of the
fault F4. Seismic attribute results reveal two main characteristic patterns of high and low
amplitude and frequency areas. The Supervised MLPNN simulated volumes for
petrophysical properties of interest have their uncertainties quantified and measure of
accuracy in prediction in terms of root mean square error (RMSE). Permeability modelled
at RMSE of 0.030, revealed some thief zones within and outside the areas with well
concentration with average permeability of 635md. MLPNN modelled map of net-to-gross
(NTG) at RMSE of 0.0290 revealed that 72% of the reservoirs have a very high NTG with
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average NTG of 0.7184. Effective porosity was modelled at RMS error of 0.0053 with
resulting average effective porosity of 0.295. Moreover, hydrocarbon saturation was also
modelled at RMSE of 0.0282 with an average of 69.7% and volume of shale was modelled
at RMSE of 0.028 and average volume of shale of 9%. The study also revealed that the
discovered petroleum reserve resources accumulations in the field for the four-mapped
reservoir sand-bodies have a total Proven (1P) reserve resource estimate of 53.005MMBO
at P90, 59.013MMBO at 2P/P50 and 65.898MMBO at 3P/P10. In conclusion, successful
prediction has been done for petrophysical properties at inter-well points and locations
beyond well control and had utilized a new framework that integrate methods of MLPNN
and stochastic multivariate geostatistics with the classical seismic post-stack inversion
operations to predicting and inferring reservoir properties for subsurface formation in the
study area. This has improved our understanding of mapped reservoirs and enhanced
lateral prediction of its properties. These prediction tools served better as a complementary
tool to each other rather than as a comparism tool.