EFFECT OF PRODUCTION AND CLIMATE-RELATED RISKS ON SMALL-HOLDER CASSAVA AND MAIZE FARMERS’ OUTPUT IN SOUTHWESTERN NIGERIA

Abstract

This study examined the effect of production and climate-related risks on small-holder cassava and maize farmers’ output in Southwestern Nigeria. Cross-sectional and time series data were used for this study. A multistage sampling procedure was employed to select 320 respondents for the study. The analytical tools used in the study are Descriptive statistics, J-P (Just and Pope) Production Function Model, Growth Function Analysis, Stochastic Frontier Translog Cost and Production Function Analysis, Auto-regressive Distributed lag (ARDL) Model and Ordered Probit Model. The result of the J-P Model revealed that quantity of cassava cuttings, quantity of fertilizer, proportion of family labour and farm size used increased the production risk of the cassava farmers, while quantity of seed and fertilizer increased the production risk of the maize farmers in the study area. The results of the analysis on the climate variables indicated that temperature increased the production risk of the cassava and maize farmers in the study area. Cassava output had a positive growth rate of 1.6% while maize output had a positive growth rate of 7.6% in the period under consideration. The results further showed that there was deceleration in the growth of cassava and maize yield during the period under consideration. The results of the stochastic translog cost function analysis revealed that maize output, price of herbicide, price of labour and price of implements were significant in influencing the total cost of maize production, while cassava output, price of fertilizer, price of herbicide, labour and price of implements were significant in influencing the total cost of cassava production in the study area. Also, the results of the stochastic translog production function showed that farm size, quantity of maize seed, fertilizer and implements significantly determined the technical efficiency of maize farmers, while farm size, quantity of cassava cuttings and quantity of fertilizer had significant relationship with the technical efficiency of cassava farmers. Findings from this study confirmed the presence of long run equilibrium between crop production and temperature, rainfall and relative humidity. The results of long run estimates showed that temperature and rainfall had a positive and negative significant influence, respectively, on cassava and maize output in the long run. The Error Correction Model (ECM) value of -0.0737 and -0.0238 for cassava and maize enterprise respectively, which was significant at 1% level showed that about 7.37% and 2.38% of disequilibria in cassava and maize enterprise respectively from the previous year’s shock converge to the long-run equilibrium in the current year. Findings from the study on cassava enterprise revealed that gender, age, farming experience, membership of association, non-farm income and extension agent visit had significant relationship with farmers’ risk attitude. On maize enterprise, the study indicated that age, household size, educational status, membership of association, storage availability and farm size had significant relationship with farmers’ risk attitude. The results of respondents’ strategies at combating risks in cassava and maize production showed that majority of the farmers indicated multiple cropping and engagement in less risky enterprises as strategies at combating risks while the least strategy used was insurance. It can be concluded that production inputs such as fertilizer, seeds and cassava cuttings increased production risks in the study area. Also, temperature increased production risks of cassava and maize farmers, while cassava and maize output experienced deceleration in the period under study. Therefore, there should be awareness creation among farmers on the risks associated with inappropriate use of production inputs. Also, agricultural insurance industry in Nigeria should be further strengthened and empowered to service risky farm businesses.