NOWCASTING TECHNIQUE FOR AVIATION: A CASE STUDY OF MALLAM AMINU KANO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, KANO, NIGERIA

Abstract

This study was conducted to develop a dynamic and practicable forecast system/technique using Kano airport as a case study.This technique is based on the concept of nowcasting and will be referred to as “Crystal Nowcasting Technique (CNCT)”. It was developed specifically for wet season. In view of this, CNCT will basically be issued for convective clouds, gust, low-level wind shear and thunderstorms (with or without rain). CNCT provides up to 6-hours lead time forecast for hazardous weather occurrence especially for aviation purposes. It uses prevailingsurface observations from Kano observatory, information extracted from satellite imagery, sounding (upper air observations) and synoptic set-up information from Numerical Weather Predictionmodel (T4 Prognostic Weather Chart) to develop theNowcast for Mallam Aminu Kano International Airport (MAKIA), Kano, Nigeria.The technique addresses the short-term needs of the Federal Aviation Authorities in terms of air navigation and safety as well as the long-term goals of the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET) in terms of provision of accurate and timely weather forecast especially for air transportation. CNCT provides traffic managers and airline operators with specific information about when and where hazardous weather is most likely to occur, hence, reducing/preventing loss of life and properties. In addition, the study improves on the forecasting technique being used at NIMET, in the sense that, it incorporates a forecasting tool called tephigram (helps to assess the stability conditions of the atmosphere as well as the vertical profile of temperature, moisture and wind). It also downscales the model charts and satellite imageries. Finally, the study shows how aviation hazards may be communicated to customers by issuing weather reports such as Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts (TAF), Aerodrome Warning and Significant Weather Forecast (SIGMET) following ICAO (International Civil Aviation Organisation) and WMO’s (World Meteorological Organisation) International Standards and 3 Recommended Practices. These meteorological reports can be transmitted through the Internet, Radio, Specialized Computer Systems, Safe Tower Projects and Telephones