TRAVEL DEMAND MODELLING OF MAKURDI METROPOLIS, BENUE STATE, NIGERIA

Abstract

In this research a travel simulation algorithm was developed for trips as they begin at their generating zone, move through a network of links and nodes and end at a trip attracting zone. The simulation algorithm is known as the four step travel demand model which includes: trip generation, trip distribution, modal split and traffic assignments. A macroscopic travel demand model of Makurdi metropolis was developed for the base year (2015) and this model was used to forecast travel demand in origin-destination trip matrices for the horizon year (2025) The study area was divided into nine zones (according to the council ward of Makurdi) to facilitate collection of data. Data on intra-city travel characteristics were collected through questionnaire distribution, National Population Commission, Ministry of Land and Survey Board and traffic survey. The analysis of data were done with the aid of computer software such as Microsoft excel and SPSS. Volume of inter-zonal trip exchanges were estimated and distributed within the traffic analysis zones. The results of the analysis shows that the probability values of modal choice indicate preference for motorcycle travel over car and bus, as motorcycle has the highest percentage split of 44%. It was also found that 5 minute trips have the highest number of trips which were the intra-zonal trips and 10 minute trips have the highest percentage increase of 45.75%. The level of service of link 2-3 was less compared to other links on the road network and the total number of trips made in each trip length segment increased for the horizon year (2025) as compared to the based year (2015).