EVALUATION OF PRODUCTION AND WOMEN’S INVOLVEMENT IN ARTISANAL AND SMALL-SCALE MINING IN SOUTHWEST NIGERIA, USING MARKOVIAN MODEL

Abstract

This study focuses on modeling and evaluating granite Artisanal and Small Scale Mining (ASM), women miner contribution, and the possibility of viable development in Nigeria. A review of literature on global ASM practice, and issues from the social point of view was carried out to identify the links to the woman miner. Afterwards, search for granite ASM sites was conducted. Data were collected from 34 sites in Southwest basement complex in Nigeria. Granite ASM conditions were characterized using graphical and numerical statistical techniques, rating scale development technique, and mathematical modeling and programming. A Markovian criteria model was formulated for estimating probabilistic cumulative production or revenue over a period of time for a given mineral, in relation to standardization requirement. This is particularly useful for forecasting the ability or feasibility of a given ASM to mitigate problems of personnel, environmental, health and safety (EHS), common to all ASM activities, in terms of revenue; and evaluating gender contribution. The results of statistical analyses of data established that the male gender predominates at about 85% as against 15% for women in entrepreneurial roles. In manpower capacity, the female gender population mode statistic is 80% of manpower. On gender granite production/cracking rates, it was established that the estimates of male and female cracking rates are 1.0 tpd and 0.5 tpd respectively. These imply by population of involvement that women produce more; at a prominent participation of 80% women, the female gender contribution to output tonnes is 71%, more than twice that of the male miners. On wages, the female artisan miner earns about 7,200 naira per month, and a male – 11,520 naira. These wages are poor and can only be for subsistence. On the monthly production and revenue rating distribution of the sites in the sample population, it was established that mining condition is generally poor in the region. It was established that the required annual production cost for starting a viable granite ASM that can mitigate existing problems of wage, health and safety, and environmental conditions, is approximately 7.3 to 9.23 million naira. Implementation of developed model established that the period to achieve sufficient revenue strength for quarry standardization (or Pay Back Period on investments to standardize granite ASM) are sensitive to the prevailing scenario of gender coefficients of manpower, transition probabilities at the reference year, and standard capital intensiveness of ASM. For all possible scenarios of gender mix of manpower involvement and approximately10 million naira investment to improving mining condition, expected payback period or revenue accumulation time (RAT) to reaching this amount vary from 3 to over 25 yrs. For “equal state change evidence expected payback period or RAT is 7-10 yrs. Financial institutions and State agencies can use these model and estimations to decide on the viability of extending loan facilities or aid for ASM operation and standardization