DEVELOPING RISK MODELS FOR PUBLIC TERTIARY EDUCATIONAL BUILDING PROJECTS IN ONDO STATE, NIGERIA

Abstract

Tertiary educational building projects, like other projects in the construction industry, have suffered non-performance consequent upon inherent risk factors. Therefore, this study developed risk models for public tertiary educational building projects in Ondo State, Nigeria. In achieving the aim, a survey research design was adopted, where opinions of the respondents were sought on various factors predisposing tertiary educational building projects to risks. Furthermore, the inherent risk factors, degree of interdependencies between risk factors, criteria for measuring success and the impact of risk factors on the success of these building projects were examined. Out of the population of 495 comprising clients, consultants and contractors from 5 public tertiary educational institutions in Ondo State, 452 samples were drawn such that the respondents had a chance of participation in the survey. The study adopted structured questionnaire as the instrument for data collection while the methods of analysis are mean item score, Kruskal Wallis H test, ANOVA, factor analysis, correlation matrix, regression analysis and structural equation modeling. The reliability analysis of the survey instruments, using Cronbach alpha, ranged between 0.763 – 0.970 among the constructs thereby indicating high significant degree of reliability. The study found that financial constraints, location of project and project type are the factors predisposing tertiary educational building projects to risks. Inherent risk factors, consequent upon the level of occurrence, include inflation, delayed payments in contracts, high competition bids, delay in progress of work and occurrence of variations. The top three significant criteria for measuring the success of tertiary educational building projects are completion to quality, end-users satisfaction and completion to time with associated p-values of 0.002, 0.003 and 0.006 respectively. The results of the models revealed that completion to time, safety performance and profit of tertiary educational building projects are significantly impacted by environmental risks, logistic risks, legal risks and design risks with corresponding p-values of 0.002, 0.000, 0.000 and 0.000 respectively. The risks associated with these projects are not only interdependent but also significantly impacted the success of tertiary educational building projects. It is therefore recommended that adequate provisions for funds should be put in place by the client while also removing administrative bottlenecks in the release of funds to the contractor in order to enhance cash flow. The client should also prioritize timely payments in contracts and the issuance of variations by the consultants should be curtailed. The occurrence of risks should be managed immediately by the project team because of the existence of positive significant interdependencies between risk factors which could trigger other risks and subsequently affect the success of tertiary educational building projects. The significant criteria for measuring the success of tertiary educational building projects should be undertaken by the stakeholders in the order of completion to quality, end-users satisfaction, completion to time, safety performance and profit. The associated p-values for the aforementioned significant criteria, for measuring the success of public tertiary educational building projects, are 0.002, 0.003, 0.006, 0.035 and 0.033. Arising from the significant impacts of risks on the completion to time, safety performance and profit, adequate attention should be accorded environmental risks, logistic risks, legal risks and design risk factors by the project team during the course of any tertiary educational building projects.