SPECTRAL ANALYSIS OF MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE IN ONDO STATE

Abstract

Spectral analysis is appropriate for the analysis of stationary time series and for identifying periodic signals that are corrupted by noise. These methods are now routinely used in meteorological studies of temperature. This work considered the application of Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA), Maximum Entropy Method (MEM) and Multi-Taper Method (MTM) to model monthly temperature rates in Ondo State from 1986 to 2015. The work set out to identify temperature rates, fit a suitable model to the data and make forecasts of future values. The findings are based on Ondo State alone and on the available data. The data analyses in this work are the monthly temperature time series in Ondo State from 19 climatological stations, obtained from the Ondo Meteorological Agency (OMA). All the assumptions associated with statistical tool were tested using the most appropriate technique. The modeling of temperature in the state was done using SSA, MEM and MTM approach. Based on the analysis; the study reveals that temperature of the state has increased in recent time in volume on average temperature of 32.19 degree Celsius with the lowest MT of 10.32 degree Celsius and maximum observation of temperature shows the possibility of average temperature rising to 42.43 degree Celsius. It was found that using SSA, MEM and MTM give more information about the underlying series. SSA will be more sensitive to differences in length, whereas the other two methods will confound length and amplitude of the series. Among these two, MTM provided more sensitive detection (i.e., detecting lower amplitude signals), whereas MEM give better frequency specificity.