STATISTICAL MODELLING OF CRIME CASES IN EKITI STATE (A CASE STUDY OF ADO-EKITI PRISONS)

Abstract

The occurrence of criminal act worldwide is on the increase, curbing the menace of crime effect to humanity has been a thing of concern, Ekiti State-Nigeria not excluded. Crime threatens human security and right, it undermines Economic, Political and Social development of any nation worldwide. Despite a vast budgetary allocation by government to curb crime, little has been achieved so far, thus it has affected the developmental agenda negatively. An algorithm was written in R program to evaluate the models with its respective likelihood ratio statistic as well as the akaike information criteria (AIC) for each log-linear model. The results showed that Crime rate is on the increase for the examined years and that the Age group that mostly involved in criminal act is between the Ages 16 – 35. The result also showed that there existed a significant difference between the crimes committed in the state and between male and female lock up cases. Crime incidence in the state varies over the years given the age-group (i.e. crime depends on year of occurrence, so also the criminals’ age group). Further analysis shows that the all possible two-way interactions between crime, year of occurrence and gender (CY.CG.YG) in the first case is most appropriate for assessing crime cases in the state since it has the least Akaike Information Criteria value for the first analysis while the model of association between Crime cases and Age-group independent of Gender (CA.G) has the least AIC, and thus, accepted to be the best model. Finally a time series forecast showed that the lockup cases would increase for the two forecasted years.