EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON YAM PRODUCTION IN SOUTH-SOUTH NIGERIA

Abstract

Agricultural production in Nigeria particularly yam production is highly weather-sensitive and vulnerable to climate change. This vulnerability has been demonstrated by the devastating effect of recent flooding in the South-South region of Nigeria. The increased variability in rainfall, relative humidity and temperature patterns in the region is a threat to food security and local economy. Understanding farmers’ perception and response to climate change is imperative as it will help in designing appropriate coping strategies. This study examined the effect of climate change on yam production by comparing the profitability level of yam production across the agro-ecological zones and farmers’ perception of climate change. It also analyzed the short and long run relationships between yam yield and selected climate variables and also identified the climate change adaptation strategies by yam farmers. The research used budgetary (cost and return) analysis to compare profitability level of yam production across the agro-ecological zones and auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to describe relationship that exists between yam yield and climate variables in South-South Nigeria using time series data of a 35 year period (1982-2017). Furthermore descriptive statistics were used to describe socioeconomic characteristics, determine respondents’ perception and adaptation strategies. The result showed that yam production is profitable in all the three prominent agro-ecological zones but comparatively, it is most profitable in the tropical rainforest zone, followed by the derived/guinea savannah zone then mangrove swamp zone. The result of the trend analysis indicated that climate variables over the period might be responsible for the variations in the yam production in the study area. The result of the time trend analysis of yam output in Cross River and Delta States revealed that the F-values were statistically significant at 1% level both at the linear and quadratic equations results. The results of growth rates for both States for the period under study showed positive growth rate of 7.57% and 6.61% for both States respectively. The results of co-integration test using autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model revealed that there exists long-run equilibrium relationship between yam production, rainfall and temperature in the study area. Findings from the study on yam farmers’ perceptions on climate change showed that majority, 65.7% and 57.8% of the sampled respondents claimed that temperature and rainfall respectively had been on increase over the years. Further results of farmers’ perceptions on the effect of climate change on yam production from Likert scale revealed that the issues of rain not coming at the appropriate time and heavy rainfalls resulting to flooding have strong effects on yam production in the area. The Multinomial Logit (MNL) model showed how socio-economic, institutional, households and farm characteristics influenced yam farmers’ choice of adaptation measures in the study area. The results discussed based on each adaptation options revealed that gender, marital status, access to extension, access to credit, age, farm size, farming experience farm income and household size were the major factors influencing the choice of adaptation measures employed by the yam farmers in the study area. Outcomes and experiences from this work will guide farmers, individuals and organizations to improve their resilience to climate change phenomena. It will further advance prospects for optimal production and provide useful tools for further studies.