FERTILITY PROGRESSION IN WEST AFRICA: A GEO-ADDITIVE SURVIVAL MODELLING

Abstract

The transition to higher birth in West Africa varies between and within countries; the differences are noted among women of various age and educational attainment. In the absence of any active fertility control the total number of children a woman bears throughout her reproductive period increases, thereby hindering the process of fertility decline. Research has also shown that progressing to higher birth can endanger the health of the mother leading to high maternal mortality. The study used data from the demographic and health survey carried out between 2010-2014 to explore possible spatial patterns and determinants of fertility progression in West Africa. Specifically, the study considered progression to fourth, fifth and sixth births. The Exponential survival model was applied to the data from eight neighbouring West African countries and the usual parametric form of the parameters were extended to structured additive predictors in order to examine the spatial patterns in a manner that transcends geographical boundary and nonlinear effects of continuous covariates. All analyses were carried out using Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation using the package R-INLA. Results show that women from all the regions of Niger, South East, South South and Northern regions of Nigeria and Western Mali are significantly more likely to proceed to higher births but lower for those in Southern Ghana, Southern Benin and Southern Togo. Also, level of education (primary, secondary and higher), urban residency, wealth index (poorest, poorer, middle, richer and richest) access to newspaper and television once in a week are significant variables capable of reducing progression to higher births.