PREDICTING ONCHOCERCIASIS ANCHOR POINT USING BAYESIAN GEOGRAPHIC PROFILLING SYSTEM

Abstract

Onchocerciasis, also known as river blindness, is one of the most debilitating neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) in wet tropical regions. It is the second most common cause of blindness due to infection, after trachoma. The disease is commonly found in riverine areas in some states of Nigeria. While there has been few studies that examined the causes and effects of the disease, identification of the disease anchor point in Ose Local Government Area of Ondo state has not been determined. The aim of this study were to identify the sources of outbreak of onchocerciasis and develop a geoprofile (probability map) that will depict the most probable area of an infection anchor point in Ose Local Government of Ondo State, Nigeria. This study comprised one hundred and three (103) people whose data were obtained from primary health care facilities registered in Ose Local Government. Based on the information provided at the primary health care center on each persons, data based on longitude and latitude of the residence of the patients were obtained for the study. Data were analyzed using DPM, geoprofiling statistical method and model estimation was through Bayesian probability technique. Bayesian model was used to generate the disease anchor point by generating map. From the location map drawn, it could be seen that Northern East of Ose Local Government are more affected in Ose Local Government Area. Apart from there, there are some areas which are closer to Ose Local Government Area which might also be affected. The application of Bayesian model in studying the disease enable the creation of a “geo-database” to analyze the source of outbreak in Ose local Government based on their location, types, or time of occurrence of each of the affected person. (GIS), allows epidemiology analysts to identify disease hotspots, along with other trends and patterns. It is concluded that this report can potentially help national control program to define hotspot areas, adjust treatment boundaries, prioritize areas with urgent Community-directed Treatments with Ivermectin (CDTI) and evaluate the progress towards elimination.