INFLUENCE OF WEATHER PARAMETERS ON SOME COMMUNICABLE DISEASES IN SELECTED LOCAL GOVERNMENT AREAS OF OYO STATE, NIGERIA.

Abstract

This study investigated the influence of weather parameters (wind speed, mean temperature, rainfall and relative humidity) on the incidences of some communicable disease (malaria, measles and pneumonia) in three Local Government Areas : Ibadan North, Egbeda and Oyo East) of Oyo State, Nigeria from 1997 to 2007. The annual trends of the weather parameters alongside incidences of diseases were carried out using Mann Kendall statistical test. It was found that all the weather parameters and diseases investigated exhibited an increasing trend with 60% significance, while a non significant decreasing trend is observed in rainfall in Oyo East during the period of observation. Also, there exist significant positive correlation between each of the weather parameters and malaria, measles and pneumonia, except wind speed that shows no association with the diseases. Furthermore, multivariate regression analysis was used to model the relationship between the occurrences of diseases and weather factors; hence an empirical equation was obtained. The statistical indicators used for comparisons shows that there is a good agreement between the estimated and observed diseases (malaria, measles and pneumonia) based on the high values of the coefficient of determination (R2 > 55%) , which validate the excellent accuracy of the modeled equation. In conclusion, the study revealed that there is high degree of dependency of the disease (malaria, measles and pneumonia) on the weather parameters examined.