EFFECTS OF SOME METEOROLOGICAL VARIABLES ON MALARIA PREVALENCE IN LAGOS, SOUTHWEST NIGERIA

Abstract

Though medical science has made remarkable progress in the fight against diseases through modern technology, the health of the human population is still influenced to a great extent by weather and climate. This study assessed the temporal variations of malaria prevalence in Lagos, Nigeria. It also assessed the relationship between selected meteorological parameters and malaria prevalence and developed weather-disease model to estimate the number of malaria patients in the area. For this research work, six years (2009 - 2014) meteorological data for Lagos State ( Ikeja station) were sourced from the Nigeria Meteorological Agency (NIMET) and the records of reported malaria cases of the 20 local government general hospital in Lagos State for the same period (2009-2014) were obtained from the Health Management Information System (HMIS) department, Lagos State Ministry of Health. The data were analyzed using time series graphs in order to determine trends in the meteorological parameters and the malaria prevalence. Ordinary least square estimates of the multiple regression models were used to establish relationship between the weather parameters and the malaria disease. The trend in the meteorological variables collected in this study revealed that minimum and maximum temperature have negative trend; on the average they decreased from year to year throughout the period of the study. On the other hand, relative humidity and rainfall have positive trend, that is, on the average humidity and rainfall increased across the period of the study. Furthermore, the temporal variation of malaria in the study shows a negative trend, meaning that, malaria prevalence decreased from year to year throughout the study period. In addition, the result of the finding shows that malaria has little or no significant relationship with meteorological parameters in Lagos State for the period observed in this research work.