RISK ASSESSMENT OF CEREBROSPINAL MENINGITIS (CSM) IN SUDANO=SAHELIAN REGION OF NIGERIA

Abstract

The risk of the outbreak of meningitis continues to increase has the reported cases of death linger with excess rises in temperature. There are evidences pointing to the fact that cerebrospinal meningitis (CSM) is an environmentally induced problem that depended a lot on climate variables even though the exact nature of this relationship is not clearly understood. Therefore this study is aimed at assessing meningitis risk in sudano-sahelian region of Nigeria and investigate the degree of vulnerability on the inhabitants with the view of evaluating existing preventive measures. The objective of the study are to; (i) identify climatic factors responsible for the outbreak of CSM in Sudano-Sahelian region and attribute weightage/ ranking to the thematic factors (ii)determine the relationship between climatic parameters and the outbreak of CSM in Sudano- Sahelian region of Nigeria; (iii) assess the spatiotemporal distribution of meningitis incidences between 1986- 2016 (iv) generate and validate the CSM risk map for the study area. Meningitis data, population and Climatic data were considered for this study. These climatic data include temperature, rainfall, wind, relative humidity and dust. Meningitis incidence data were gotten from Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) 2003-2016 and was updated with the data collected from the Nigeria Bureau of Statistics Archive. Temperature (Maximum and Minimum), Dust, Wind, and Relative Humidity were downloaded from European Reanalysis data (ERA interim data )while Rainfall data were gotten from the Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS) between 1986-2016.Spatial distribution of climate data were analysed using Ordinary kriging and fuzzy overlay across the study area while hazard map and the risk map were generated using weighted overlay. The means meningitis incidence map for sudano-sahelian was generated and the result revealed that Katsina recorded the highest number of cases throughout the study period with the total of 17,325 cases (highest was recorded in 2009) Kaduna has the lowest number of recorded cases with 1595 cases. Factors responsible for the meningitis incidence were also analysed using fuzzy overlay techniques of Arcmap10.2 software thus the meningitis hazard map was generated and the result showed that different area in Sudano Sahelian region states like Borno, Yobe and parts of Jigawa and Bauchi are very highly vulnerable to meningitis disease while kebbi some part of Zamafara and Kaduna are of low vulnerability. The population field was used to normalised with the mean incidence of meningitis field thus a meningitis risk map was generate and the result showed that the very low risk area had the probability range of 21.48-43.40% this include parts of Kebbi and Zamfara . State like Sokoto ,Kastina , Kano,Bauchi and Kaduna are high risk area with the probability range of 54.76% - 74.28% of the population vulnerable. While very high risk area include Yobe ,Borno Jigawa state with probability range of about 74.29% to about 83.8%.Multiple Correlation was used to test the relationship between meningitis and climatic data. The result further reveal that temperature has a moderate positive correlation with meningitis with 0.545 while rainfall and relative humidity has a weak negative correlation with meningitis with -0.377 and -0.366 respectively. This study recommends that immunization should be done early on regular bases most especially at identify high risk areas. Health centers should be established at reasonable distance of the communities. Furthermore people within this risk region should be sensitized on adaptive strategies on how curb meningitis.