ASSESSMENT OF THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON PRODCUTION OF SELECTED FOOD CROPS IN ONDO STATE, NIGERIA

Abstract

Climate Change is a global phenomenon that poses monumental challenges to agricultural production, food security and livelihood of Nigerians and other developing countries. This study explores the effect of climate change on food crop production in Ondo State, Nigeria. The specific objectives of the study are to investigate the socio-economic characteristics of food crops farmers in the study area, identify factors affecting climate change and compare farmers’ perceptions of climate change with observed climatic conditions, evaluate the economic significance of climate and farm – level adaptation variables of farmers, examine the existences of long – run equilibrium relationship between yields of selected food crops and climate variables for the period 1971 – 2010, and estimate the short – run dynamics of the variables under study. Data used for the study were collected from both primary and secondary sources. The primary data were collected with the aid of well-structured questionnaire. A total of 288 food crops farmers were selected using a multi-stage sampling technique. The secondary data involved time-series climate data from1901 to 2013 by Climate Research Unit climate variables. Food crops (maize and cassava) yields between 1971 to 2010 were obtained from National Bureau of Statistics. Descriptive statistics were employed to analyse the socio – economic characteristics of farmers. The results showed that majority of farmers had perceptions about climate change. About 29% perceived unpredictable onset and cessation of rains. Observed climatic conditions for the periods (1901 - 2013) showed an established shift in the average mean rainfall. These indicate climate change in the study area. There was observed climate variability. The Cobb-Douglas estimation procedure was used to examine the economic significance of climate variables and adaptation practices. The results indicates that the coefficient of rainfall was positive and significant for maize and yam output. This may suggest that food crops output in the study area is rain-dependent. Farm size and Educational level were important determinant factors of adaptation practices employed by farmers to cushion the risks and uncertainties associated with climate change and variability. The results of Co – integration Analysis showed that there exist a long – run relationship between cassava and maize yields and climate variables (rainfall, temperature and relative humility). Food crop production is dependent to a large extent, on climate variables. Maize production was found to be more susceptible to climate change. The results of the Error Correction Modeling (ECM) confirmed that the current level of rainfall and temperature is sensitive to food crops output in the short-run. Therefore food production could be enhanced and sustained by designing agricultural programmes and technologies that are climate friendly. Decision makers in Nigeria should place more emphasis on increasing supply of improved inputs to farmer. Climate change studies should be incorporated into the education curriculum from primary to tertiary levels. The long – run relationship between climate variables and crop yields should make policy to focus on long – term planning on measures to mitigate potential climate change.