GEOSPATIAL ANALYSIS OF CRIME IN URBAN NEIGHBOURHOODS OF IBADAN, NIGERIA

Abstract

The study demonstrated the utility of geospatial analyses for exploring the pattern of crime, socioeconomic and physical characteristics of 109 neighbourhoods in Ibadan, Nigeria, using crime data between 2011 and 2015. It also explored the characteristics and travel patterns of criminals across the different neighbourhood densities. The research was anchored mainly on socio-disorganisation, routine activity, Crime pattern theories, and Crime Prevention Through Environmental Design (CPTED). A mixed-method approach combining both quantitative and qualitative methods was used. One thousand, five hundred and ninety-nine (1,599) questionnaires were administered using stratified random sampling techniques. One thousand, five hundred and twenty-six (1,526) were returned for analysis. The data collected were analysed with SPSS 25, while ArcGIS 10.8 and Geoda 1.18 software were geospatial tools used to analyse the pattern and spatial autocorrelation of crime, socio-economic and physical characteristics at the neighbourhood level. Pearson’s correlation, multiple regression, ANOVA, and Ordinary Least Squares were used to test the hypotheses and examine the relationship between crime and the explanatory variables. Seventeen (17) variables were used to categorise the 109 neighbourhoods into their levels of Socio-economic disadvantage (SED) and physical quality disadvantage (PQD). It was discovered that about 39% of the neighbourhoods mostly within and around the traditional core area of Ibadan recorded high SED and PQD scores and were tagged disadvantaged neighbourhoods. About 18% have low SED and PQD making them advantaged neighbourhoods while the remaining 40% recorded moderate SED and PQD. The analysis revealed a high clustered pattern of property and violent crimes in the city's traditional core and surrounding highdensity neighbourhoods with Moran’s I value of 0.69 and 0.79 respectively. The rate and incidence of crime reduced outward from the city centre towards the medium and low-density neighbourhoods in the periphery of the city. The SED and PQD were found to be correlated with crime and significantly predicted the variability in crime occurrence and pattern with R2 = 0.671, p = 0.01 and R2 = 0.689, p = 0.01 respectively. The study reveals that most (54.7%) of the criminals in the study area had secondary school education with low-paying artisanship work and were between the age of 18-40. They originated from high-density neighbourhoods and travel to crime scenes mostly on Motorcycle and Walking over an average distance of 1-5km. Results indicated that most residents in the study area exhibited a significantly higher level of fear at night than during the day, with a better situation in the low-density neighbourhoods. The existing crime control measures (burglars bar, neighbourhood watch, fence etc.) were weak and unable to ensure safer neighbourhoods. Several measures that can ensure a reduction in crime within the study area were recommended. The research identified the need to develop new urban design principles to decrease crime risks. Thus CPTED strategies were put forward for integration into the Nigerian planning system and to advance a critical role for urban planning and design in crime control.