Abstract:
Drought existence is not new in Lokoja (Kogi State) of Nigeria, considering the
fact that the entire sahel region is susceptible to climatic anomalies. The climatic
phenomenon cannot be prevented nor eradicated; rather the effects on humanity can be
mitigated. This study was conducted to assess the drought potential of Lokoja using long
term rainfall data and then determine the most appropriate technique For the evaluation of
drought in the area. The rainfall data was collected From the meteorological department
of Lokoja in Kogi State. The study which covered 73- year period (1931-2003) was
conducted on l.okoja in Kogi State of Nigeria using the rainfall data. Four major
techniques were used for the evaluation; these are Stochastic Component Time Series,
Rainfall Anomaly Index, Cumulative Rainfall Information, and the Drought Severity
Index based on the quartile range.
The results obtained from technique showed that 8 distinct years namely
1931.1935.19~O.1943.1951, 1981.1990.1999 experienced severe drought while 1942,
1987. 1983 and 1982 experienced more severe drought. Drought threatened the region
for many years within the period of the study but that of 1942 was most severe.
Rainfall Anomaly Index is the most appropriate technique For the evaluation of
drought in Lokoja because it gives the rainfall indices as well as yearly anomalies.
It offer's more explanations than the other techniques about the severity and impact of
drought in the study area.
