Abstract:
Medical and Meteorological data for at least five years to twelve
years were used Cor three stations, Ikeja, Akure and Kaduna to study the
effects or the later on some common diseases, such as malaria, measles,
chicken pox, cerebra spina meningitis (CSM) and pneumonia. The results
show that malaria disease is the most rampant having the highest number
"r patients at all stations. It was also found that, malaria and pneumonia
are associated with the rainy season while measles, chicken pox and CSM
are common during the hot periods. Analysis show that the diseases
have strong correlations with some of the meteorological factors but these
correlations vary from one station to the other. Malaria has correlation
coefficients or -0.551, 0.738, 0.603 with temperature, relative humidity
and rainfall respectively in Akure, but 0.527 with relative humidity only
ill Kaduna and 0.3 with temperature and 0.551 with relative humidity at
lkeja. While 0.559, 0.357 are the correlation coefficients 1\with
temperature <1I1d relative humidity respectively in Kaduna. The
corresponding value 0.75 Ior chicken pox with temperature in Ikeja while
CSM has correlation value or 0.55 and - 0.58 with temperature and
relative humidity respectively ill Akure.
The results show that pneumonia has the weakest correlation
among the disease ill all the stations with correlation coefficients of -
VI
O.i~"18, 0.4 ll, 0.240 with relative humidity in Kaduna, rainfall in Akure
and temperature ill Ikcja respectively.
Finally, an attempt is made at making disease - weather prediction
models Ior each or the diseases, to enable reasonable estimation of
expected patients for any month or the year. This would be found useful
for improved hcalthcarc delivery and planning purposes. However, the
predictive models arc more reliable for diseases that have a high number
or patients, :;\1cl1 as malaria.
