THE RELATIONSHIP BET\VEEN WEATHER ELEMENTS AND SOME COMMON DISEASES IN NIGERIA

Abstract

Medical and Meteorological data for at least five years to twelve years were used Cor three stations, Ikeja, Akure and Kaduna to study the effects or the later on some common diseases, such as malaria, measles, chicken pox, cerebra spina meningitis (CSM) and pneumonia. The results show that malaria disease is the most rampant having the highest number "r patients at all stations. It was also found that, malaria and pneumonia are associated with the rainy season while measles, chicken pox and CSM are common during the hot periods. Analysis show that the diseases have strong correlations with some of the meteorological factors but these correlations vary from one station to the other. Malaria has correlation coefficients or -0.551, 0.738, 0.603 with temperature, relative humidity and rainfall respectively in Akure, but 0.527 with relative humidity only ill Kaduna and 0.3 with temperature and 0.551 with relative humidity at lkeja. While 0.559, 0.357 are the correlation coefficients 1\with temperature <1I1d relative humidity respectively in Kaduna. The corresponding value 0.75 Ior chicken pox with temperature in Ikeja while CSM has correlation value or 0.55 and - 0.58 with temperature and relative humidity respectively ill Akure. The results show that pneumonia has the weakest correlation among the disease ill all the stations with correlation coefficients of - VI O.i~"18, 0.4 ll, 0.240 with relative humidity in Kaduna, rainfall in Akure and temperature ill Ikcja respectively. Finally, an attempt is made at making disease - weather prediction models Ior each or the diseases, to enable reasonable estimation of expected patients for any month or the year. This would be found useful for improved hcalthcarc delivery and planning purposes. However, the predictive models arc more reliable for diseases that have a high number or patients, :;\1cl1 as malaria.