Abstract:
ABSTRACT
Gambia is the smallest nation on the African mainland, covering 10,690 square kilometers. The natural
resources and environment have been heavily affected by changes in climate, such as shifts in temperature
and rainfall, which have negatively impacted the growth cycles of crops, their production, and the regrowth
of forests. This study uses projected changes in precipitation downscaled statistically from three general
circulation models (GCMs): the Max Planck Institute of Meteorology (MPI-ESM), the National Centre for
Meteorological Research (CNRM-CM5), and the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis
(CanESM5) under two representative concentration pathways (RCP 8.5 and 4.5). The study uses spatial
and statistical metrics to determine the impact of climate change on projected precipitation in the study
area from 2030 to 2060. The RCP 8.5 scenario forecasts annual precipitation reductions of 35.7%, 32.5%,
and 25.6%, whereas the RCP 4.5 projects decreases of 33.4%, 29.2%, and 20.4% for CanEM5, MPI-ESM,
and CNRM-CM5 by 2030-2060. Thus, the decline will likely lead to a decline in crop yield by 20.4% and
25.8% under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 in The Gambia. Attaining food sufficiency and security becomes
increasingly complicated and unrealistic. Thus, accelerated strategic climate actions such as the
implementation of Climate Smart Agriculture (CSA), which includes integrated irrigation and the adoption
of highly drought-resistant crops, need to be implemented by government and other stakeholders.
