Abstract:
ABSTRACT
Osun Osogbo Sacred Grove is a UNESCO World Heritage Site in Nigeria that is becoming more
endangered by natural climate fluctuations and human activities. Geospatial methods are used to determine
the environmental risks to the Grove in 2002-2024. The objectives included determining the climate-related
risk factors that impact ecotourism, assess the spatial association between the climate impact and
environmental risk to the wildlife habitats and infrastructure. Supervised classification, change detection
and risk index modeling were done in ArcGIS by analyzing Multi-temporal Landsat imagery (2002, 2014,
and 2024) and climate datasets (rainfall and temperature using TAMSAT). The findings indicated that there
was a dramatic reduction in forest cover (around 65 percent in 2002 to 45 percent in 2024) and agricultural
plus urban sprawl. It showed that rainfall reduced by about 10 percent during the study period and the
average temperature rose by 1.2degC, which made vegetation more stressful and seasonally disturbing.
The southern and eastern boundary were considered as risky with convergence points of deforestation,
encroachment, and climate variability. The paper proves the applicability of geospatial tools in the process
of monitoring and quantification of environmental risks. Results highlight the relevance of proactive
conservation measures such as the enforcement of buffer-zones, reforestation and incorporation of GISbased
monitoring into management systems and plans. The combined traditional cultural stewardship and
modern spatial analysis improved the value of the Osun Osogbo grove and safeguard its Outstanding
Universal Value. It provides framework to manage heritage conservation in sub-Saharan Africa.
