GEOSPATIAL ASSESSMENTS OF ENVIRONMENTAL THREATS TO A UNESCO CULTURAL AND NATURAL HERITAGE SITE IN SOUTH-WEST NIGERIA

Abstract

ABSTRACT Osun Osogbo Sacred Grove is a UNESCO World Heritage Site in Nigeria that is becoming more endangered by natural climate fluctuations and human activities. Geospatial methods are used to determine the environmental risks to the Grove in 2002-2024. The objectives included determining the climate-related risk factors that impact ecotourism, assess the spatial association between the climate impact and environmental risk to the wildlife habitats and infrastructure. Supervised classification, change detection and risk index modeling were done in ArcGIS by analyzing Multi-temporal Landsat imagery (2002, 2014, and 2024) and climate datasets (rainfall and temperature using TAMSAT). The findings indicated that there was a dramatic reduction in forest cover (around 65 percent in 2002 to 45 percent in 2024) and agricultural plus urban sprawl. It showed that rainfall reduced by about 10 percent during the study period and the average temperature rose by 1.2degC, which made vegetation more stressful and seasonally disturbing. The southern and eastern boundary were considered as risky with convergence points of deforestation, encroachment, and climate variability. The paper proves the applicability of geospatial tools in the process of monitoring and quantification of environmental risks. Results highlight the relevance of proactive conservation measures such as the enforcement of buffer-zones, reforestation and incorporation of GISbased monitoring into management systems and plans. The combined traditional cultural stewardship and modern spatial analysis improved the value of the Osun Osogbo grove and safeguard its Outstanding Universal Value. It provides framework to manage heritage conservation in sub-Saharan Africa.